COVID – 19, Saturday 2nd May, Do please share this video, people need to see this one. IRC
IRC: World risks up to 1 billion cases and 3.2 million deaths from COVID-19 across fragile countries 500 million and 1 billion infections, leading to between 1.7 to 3.2 million deaths, in 34 conflict-affected and fragile countries.
A small window of time left
Estimates are based on Chinese data, but,
Less health care than china
Venezuela
Refugee camps Syria, Greece and Bangladesh
Population density, X 8.5 Diamond princess where transmission of the virus was up to four times faster than in Wuhan
Limited access to water, sanitation and hygiene found in displacement camps, the disease will spread fast and could devastate communities
Yemen
Somalia
South Sudan
Syria
DRC
CAR
Chad
Sudan
Afghanistan
Zimbabwe
Guinea
Haiti
Iraq
Nigeria
Imperial modelling
Report 12: The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression
In the absence of interventions
7.0 billion infections
40 million deaths globally this year
Mitigation strategies
Shielding the elderly (60% reduction in social contacts) + Slowing but not interrupting transmission (40% reduction in social contacts for wider population) save 20 million lives
Even in this scenario, all Health systems will be quickly overwhelmed
In a typical low-income setting outstripping supply by a factor of 25
US and UK R0 = 2.4 – 3.3
3 day doubling time
UK deaths, 490,000
US deaths 2,180,000
Balance of risk in LICs
Lower age profile
Social conditions
Social unrest
Malnutrition, HIV, TB, Malaria, Yellow fever, STIs
Need the rapid adoption of public health measures to suppress transmission,
Testing and isolation of cases
Wider social distancing measures
Rapid isolation
Delays in implementing strategies to suppress transmission will lead to worse outcomes and fewer lives saved.
Social and economic costs of suppression, may be disproportionately in lower income settings
Healthcare Availability
LICs, 1.24 beds per 1000
HICs, 4.82 beds per 1000
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